Jun.Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern
Bergheimer Str. 58
My paper "Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects" (with C. Zuber) was accepted for publication in the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.
I will soon leave the AWI and take over the Chair for Statistics and Econometrics at Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nürnberg (FAU) at April 1, 2019.
Please note that I do not supervise any Master or Bachelor theses during the winter term 2018/19.
I am now an Affiliate in the CESifo research network.
My research with Christopher Zuber on the impact of recessions on estimates of potential output is now available as a working paper.
- 2006-2009: University of Kiel, Doctoral Program in Quantitative Economics (PhD).
- 2005-2006: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Advanced Studies Program in International Economic Policy Research.
- 2004-2005: University of Maastricht, Minor Program in European Studies.
- 2001-2005: University of Maastricht, Master Program in Econometrics.
- Since 2014: Heidelberg University, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics.
- 2016: RWTH Aachen University, Visiting Professor of Economics.
- 2013-2014: Heidelberg University, Postdoc for Macroeconomics.
- 2009-2013: Kiel Economics Research & Forecasting, Managing Director.
- 2012: International Monetary Fund, Visiting Researcher at the research department.
- 2010-2011: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Consultant to the research area "The environment and natural resources".
- 2010: International Monetary Fund, Consultant to the research department.
- 2010: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Consultant to IFMR in Tashkent (UZ).
- 2005-2008: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Researcher.
Macroeconomic Forecasts and Expectations, Heterogeneity of Expectations, Time-Series Econometrics, Interaction of Business Cycles and Growth, Interaction of Business Cycles and Financial Markets
- Dovern, J. and C. Zuber, 2019, Recessions and Potential Output: Disentangling Measurement Errors, Supply Shocks, and Hysteresis Effects, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, forthcoming.
- Dovern, J. and M. Hartmann, 2017, Forecast Performance, Disagreement, and Heterogeneous Signal-to-Noise Ratios, Empirical Economics, 53, 63-77.
- Dovern, J. and N. Jannsen, 2017, Systematic Errors in Growth Expectations over the Business Cycle, International Journal of Forecasting, 33, 760-769.
- Dovern, J., M. Feldkircher, and F. Huber, 2016, Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 70, 86-100.
- Rickels, W., J. Dovern, and M. Quaas, 2016, Beyond Fisheries: Common-Pool Resource Problems in Oceanic Resources and Services, Global Environmental Change, 40, 37-49.
- Rickels, W., J. Dovern, J. Hoffmann, M. F. Quaas, J. O. Schmidt, and M. Visbeck, 2016, Indicators for Monitoring Sustainable Development Goals: An Application to Oceanic Development in the European Union, Earth’s Future, DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000353.
- Dovern, J., 2015, A Multivariate Analysis of Forecast Disagreement: Confronting Models of Disagreement with Survey Data, European Economic Review, 80, 16-35.
- Dovern, J. and F. Huber, 2015, Global Prediction of Recessions, Economics Letters, 133, 81-84.
- Dovern, J., U. Fritsche, P. Loungani and N. Tamirisa, 2014, Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel, International Journal of Forecasting, 31, 144-154.
- Dovern, J. and B. van Roye, 2014, International Transmission and Business-Cycle Effects of Financial Stress, Journal of Financial Stability, 13, 1-17.
- Dovern, J., M. F. Quaas and W. Rickels, 2014, A Comprehensive Wealth Index for Cities in Germany, Ecological Indicators, 41, 79-86.
- Dovern, J., 2013, When Are GDP Forecasts Updated? Evidence from a Large International Panel, Economics Letters, 120(3), 521-523.
- Dovern, J., U. Fritsche and J. Slacalek, 2012, Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries, Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 1081-1096.
- Dovern, J. and J. Weisser, 2011, Accuracy, Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts: An Empirical Comparison for the G7, International Journal of Forecasting, 27(2), 452-465.
- Rickels, W., G. Klepper, J. Dovern (edt.), 2011, Large-Scale Intentional Interventions into the Climate System? Assessing the Climate Engineering Debate, Report for the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Kiel, December 2011. (Also available in German.)
- Blank, S. and J. Dovern, 2010, What Macroeconomic Shocks Affect the German Banking System? Analysis in an Integrated Micro-Macro Model, Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 2(2), 126-148.
- Dovern, J., C.-P. Meier and J. Vilsmeier, 2010, How Resilient is the German Banking System to Macroeconomic Shocks?, Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(8), 1839-1848.
- Döpke, J., J. Dovern, U. Fritsche and J. Slacalek, 2008, The Sticky Information Phillips Curve. European Evidence, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 40(7), 1513-1519.
- Döpke, J., J. Dovern, U. Fritsche and J. Slacalek, 2008, The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations, The B.E. Journal of Macro-Economics, 8(1).
- Dovern, J. and P. Nunnenkamp, 2007, Aid and Growth Accelerations: An Alternative Approach to Assess the Effectiveness of Aid, Kyklos, 60(3), 359-383.
Selected Working Papers
- Dovern, J. and G. Kenny, 2017, The Long-term Distribution of Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: What Has Changed since the Great Recession?, ECB Working Paper Series, No. 1999 (R&R at IJCB).
- Dovern, J. and H. Manner, 2016, Order Invariant Density Evaluation for High-Dimensional Systems, Discussion Paper Series, No. 608, Department of Economics, Heidelberg University. (R&R at JAE)
- Dovern, J., U. Fritsche, P. Loungani and N. Tamirisa, 2013, Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel, IMF Working Paper 13/56.
- Dovern, J., U. Fritsche and J. Slacalek, 2009, Disagreement among Forecasters in the G7 Countries, ECB Working Paper Series, No. 1082.
- Döpke, J., J. Dovern, U. Fritsche and J. Slacalek, Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence, ECB Working Paper Series, No. 930.
Work in Progress
- Robust Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts (joint with H. Manner)
- Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts for Energy Loads (joint with H. Manner)
- Multivariate Evaluation of Macroeconomic Forecasts (joint with H. Manner and M. Wolters)
- Analyzing the Long-Run Effects of Recessions
- Inflation Anchoring in the Euro Area (joint with G. Kenny)
- Uncertainty Shocks (joint with B. Born and Z. Enders)
Introduction to Econometric Methods (Master), Institute for the World Economy, 2006/2007/2008
Introduction to Applied Macroeconometrics (Master), IFMR (Tashkent), 2010
Business-Cycle Theorie (Bachelor), Heidelberg University, 2013/14
Economic Research with Matlab (Seminar, Bachelor), Heidelberg University, 2014/15
Macroeconomic Forecasting (Master), Heidelberg University, 2014 and 2015
Empirical Macroeconomics (Master), Heidelberg University, 2014/15; 2015/16; 2017/18
Introduction to Macroeconomics (Bachelor), RWTH Aachen University, 2016
Advanced Macroeconomics (Master), RWTH Aachen University, 2016
Monetary Policy during the Financial Crisis (Seminar, Bachelor), Heidelberg University, 2016/17
Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy (Bachelor), Heidelberg University, 2017; 2018
Reforming the Euro Area (Seminar, Master), Heidelberg University, 2018/19
Applied Economics; Canadian Journal of Economics; Ecological Economics; Economic Journal; Economic Modelling; Economic Systems; Economics Letters; Emerging Markets Finance and Trade; Empirical Economics; Energy Economics; Ensayos sobre Política Ecónomica; European Economic Review; German Economic Review; International Journal of Central Banking; International Journal of Forecasting; International Review of Economics and Finance; Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik; Journal of Banking and Finance; Journal of Business & Economic Statistics; Journal of Economics & Business; Journal of Financial Stability; Journal of Forecasting; Journal of Macroeconomics; Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking; King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals; Macroeconomic Dynamics; Oesterreichische Nationalbank; Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics; Portuguese Economic Journal; Public Finance Review; Review of Economics & Statistics; Scandinavian Journal of Economics; Southern Economic Journal.