EXPLORER PROJECT4.8 The Nature of Evidence

The Nature of the Evidence: Studying the evidence base of policy, stakeholders, and policy design in an in vivo setting (NEVIVO)

NEVIVO studies how scientific evidence impacts on different policy stakeholders’ beliefs and their support for policy change. Subject of the study is an ongoing federal policy program targeting low- income households in Germany giving financial support to increase domestic energy efficiency.

In a randomized controlled trial, the project team collects data on the effect of several behavioral interventions on investment decisions by low-income households in the program. In a next step, the researchers will present the results to several policy stakeholder groups and measure in an incentivized survey how scientific evidence on the effectiveness of program design changes affects their support. In parallel, a series of focus-group interviews with the program’s social workers is conducted to provide a qualitative understanding of the way evidence is perceived among stakeholders that are directly affected by policy design changes.

As preparatory work to the interventions, observational data on 12 years of program duration have been evaluated econometrically aiming to understand how financial and behavioral incentives affect investment behavior in the program. The project team finds that both financial and behavioral incentives are effective to increase investment in energy efficiency in low-income households.

Results of both the econometric analysis and the randomized control trial will be discussed with the policy makers in charge of the program. Results on the more general topic of how policy stakeholders’ beliefs are shaped by scientific evidence can contribute to strategies for evidence- based policy making.