Ostasien Aktuell Reflections on Taiwan's Elections and their Implications for the Near Future

On January 13th, Taiwanese voters will head to the polls to elect a new president and a new legislature. President Tsai will be stepping down after two terms in office, and these elections will determine whether Taiwan continues to follow her path or set out in a new direction. The three presidential candidates have promised very different strategies towards dealing with China as well as some controversial domestic issues, such as nuclear power, constitutional reform, and how to fight corruption. The extent to which the new president will be able to implement his agenda depends heavily on the outcome of the legislative elections. The next four years will be very different if the president’s party has a majority, the main opposition wins a majority, or if neither of the two established parties has a majority and the third party holds the balance of power. Pre-election surveys had not made it clear which outcome to expect.

In the aftermath of the election, this presentation will discuss the results. What happened? Were there any big surprises? What were the critical issues? Did any of the parties or candidates make strategic mistakes? What kind of policy outcomes should we expect in the next four years? If there is divided government, how will that affect politics?