Jun.Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern
Bergheimer Str. 58
My research with Christopher Zuber on the impact of recessions on estimates of potential output is now available as a working paper.
A summary of my recent publication in the International Journal of Forecasting was published in Wirtschaftsdienst.
This semester I teach a course on empirical methods for macroeconomics for Master students.
My paper "Systematic Errors in Growth Expectations over the Business Cycle" (with Nils Jannsen) was published by the International Journal of Forecasting.
My paper "Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR was published by the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
My paper "Forecast Performance, Disagreement, and Heterogeneous Signal-to-Noise Ratios" (with Matthias Hartmann) was published by Empirical Economics.
- 2006-2009: University of Kiel, Doctoral Program in Quantitative Economics (PhD).
- 2005-2006: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Advanced Studies Program in International Economic Policy Research.
- 2004-2005: University of Maastricht, Minor Program in European Studies.
- 2001-2005: University of Maastricht, Master Program in Econometrics.
- Since 2014: Heidelberg University, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics.
- 2016: RWTH Aachen University, Visiting Professor of Economics.
- 2013-2014: Heidelberg University, Postdoc for Macroeconomics.
- 2009-2013: Kiel Economics Research & Forecasting, Managing Director.
- 2012: International Monetary Fund, Visiting Researcher at the research department.
- 2010-2011: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Consultant to the research area "The environment and natural resources".
- 2010: International Monetary Fund, Consultant to the research department.
- 2010: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Consultant to IFMR in Tashkent (UZ).
- 2005-2008: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Researcher.
Macroeconomic Forecasts and Expectations, Heterogeneity of Expectations, Time-Series Econometrics, Interaction of Business Cycles and Growth, Interaction of Business Cycles and Financial Markets
- Dovern, J. and M. Hartmann, 2017, Forecast Performance, Disagreement, and Heterogeneous Signal-to-Noise Ratios, Empirical Economics, 53, 63-77.
- Dovern, J. and N. Jannsen, 2017, Systematic Errors in Growth Expectations over the Business Cycle, International Journal of Forecasting, 33, 760-769.
- Dovern, J., M. Feldkircher, and F. Huber, 2016, Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 70, 86-100.
- Rickels, W., J. Dovern, and M. Quaas, 2016, Beyond Fisheries: Common-Pool Resource Problems in Oceanic Resources and Services, Global Environmental Change, 40, 37-49.
- Rickels, W., J. Dovern, J. Hoffmann, M. F. Quaas, J. O. Schmidt, and M. Visbeck, 2016, Indicators for Monitoring Sustainable Development Goals: An Application to Oceanic Development in the European Union, Earth’s Future, DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000353.
- Dovern, J., 2015, A Multivariate Analysis of Forecast Disagreement: Confronting Models of Disagreement with Survey Data, European Economic Review, 80, 16-35.
- Dovern, J. and F. Huber, 2015, Global Prediction of Recessions, Economics Letters, 133, 81-84.
- Dovern, J., U. Fritsche, P. Loungani and N. Tamirisa, 2014, Information Rigidities: Comparing Average and Individual Forecasts for a Large International Panel, International Journal of Forecasting, 31, 144-154.
- Dovern, J. and B. van Roye, 2014, International Transmission and Business-Cycle Effects of Financial Stress, Journal of Financial Stability, 13, 1-17.
- Dovern, J., M. F. Quaas and W. Rickels, 2014, A Comprehensive Wealth Index for Cities in Germany, Ecological Indicators, 41, 79-86.
- Dovern, J., 2013, When Are GDP Forecasts Updated? Evidence from a Large International Panel, Economics Letters, 120(3), 521-523.
- Dovern, J., U. Fritsche and J. Slacalek, 2012, Disagreement among Forecasters in G7 Countries, Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(4), 1081-1096.
- Dovern, J. and J. Weisser, 2011, Accuracy, Unbiasedness and Efficiency of Professional Macroeconomic Forecasts: An Empirical Comparison for the G7, International Journal of Forecasting, 27(2), 452-465.
- Rickels, W., G. Klepper, J. Dovern (edt.), 2011, Large-Scale Intentional Interventions into the Climate System? Assessing the Climate Engineering Debate, Report for the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, Kiel, December 2011. (Also available in German.)
- Blank, S. and J. Dovern, 2010, What Macroeconomic Shocks Affect the German Banking System? Analysis in an Integrated Micro-Macro Model, Journal of Financial Economic Policy, 2(2), 126-148.
- Dovern, J., C.-P. Meier and J. Vilsmeier, 2010, How Resilient is the German Banking System to Macroeconomic Shocks?, Journal of Banking and Finance, 34(8), 1839-1848.
- Döpke, J., J. Dovern, U. Fritsche and J. Slacalek, 2008, The Sticky Information Phillips Curve. European Evidence, Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 40(7), 1513-1519.
- Döpke, J., J. Dovern, U. Fritsche and J. Slacalek, 2008, The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations, The B.E. Journal of Macro-Economics, 8(1).
- Dovern, J. and P. Nunnenkamp, 2007, Aid and Growth Accelerations: An Alternative Approach to Assess the Effectiveness of Aid, Kyklos, 60(3), 359-383.
Selected Working Papers
- Dovern, J. and C. Zuber, 2017, Recessions and Instable Estimates of Potential Output, Discussion Paper Series, No. 639, Department of Economics, Heidelberg University.
- Dovern, J. and G. Kenny, 2017, The Long-term Distribution of Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: What Has Changed since the Great Recession?, ECB Working Paper Series, No. 1999 (R&R at IJCB).
- Dovern, J. and H. Manner, 2016, Order Invariant Density Evaluation for High-Dimensional Systems, Discussion Paper Series, No. 608, Department of Economics, Heidelberg University.
- Dovern, J., U. Fritsche, P. Loungani and N. Tamirisa, 2013, Information Rigidities in Economic Growth Forecasts: Evidence from a Large International Panel, IMF Working Paper 13/56.
- Dovern, J., U. Fritsche and J. Slacalek, 2009, Disagreement among Forecasters in the G7 Countries, ECB Working Paper Series, No. 1082.
- Döpke, J., J. Dovern, U. Fritsche and J. Slacalek, Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence, ECB Working Paper Series, No. 930.
Work in Progress
- Robust Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts (joint with H. Manner)
- Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts for Energy Loads (joint with H. Manner)
- Multivariate Evaluation of Macroeconomic Forecasts (joint with H. Manner and M. Wolters)
- Analyzing the Long-Run Effects of Recessions
- Inflation Anchoring in the Euro Area (joint with G. Kenny)
- Uncertainty Shocks (joint with B. Born and Z. Enders)
Introduction to Econometric Methods (Master), Institute for the World Economy, 2006/2007/2008
Introduction to Applied Macroeconometrics (Master), IFMR (Tashkent), 2010
Business-Cycle Theorie (Bachelor), Heidelberg University, 2013/14
Economic Research with Matlab (Seminar, Bachelor), Heidelberg University, 2014/15
Macroeconomic Forecasting (Master), Heidelberg University, 2014 and 2015
Empirical Macroeconomics (Master), Heidelberg University, 2014/15; 2015/16; 2017/18
Introduction to Macroeconomics (Bachelor), RWTH Aachen University, 2016
Advanced Macroeconomics (Master), RWTH Aachen University, 2016
Monetary Policy during the Financial Crisis (Seminar, Bachelor), Heidelberg University, 2016/17
Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy (Bachelor), Heidelberg University 2017
Applied Economics; Canadian Journal of Economics; Ecological Economics; Economic Journal; Economic Modelling; Economic Systems; Economics Letters; Emerging Markets Finance and Trade; Empirical Economics; Energy Economics; Ensayos sobre Política Ecónomica; European Economic Review; German Economic Review; International Journal of Central Banking; International Journal of Forecasting; International Review of Economics and Finance; Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik; Journal of Banking and Finance; Journal of Business & Economic Statistics; Journal of Economics & Business; Journal of Financial Stability; Journal of Forecasting; Journal of Macroeconomics; Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking; King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals; Macroeconomic Dynamics; Oesterreichische Nationalbank; Portuguese Economic Journal; Public Finance Review; Review of Economics & Statistics; Scandinavian Journal of Economics; Southern Economic Journal.