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Jun.Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern

Assistant Professor of MacroeconomicsDovern Portrait

Room: 01.010 (AWI)
Campus Bergheim
Bergheimer Str. 58
D-69115 Heidelberg
Phone: +49-(0)6221 -54-2958
Office hour: Wednesday 11:00-12:00 h (please coordinate per email in advance)



My paper "The Long-term Distribution of Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: What Has Changed since the Great Recession?" was published as an ECB Working Paper.

During the summer term 2017 I will give a course on Monetary Theorie and Monetary Policy for Bachelor students. (Course information will follow soon.)

My paper "Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR was published by the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

My paper "Forecast Performance, Disagreement, and Heterogeneous Signal-to-Noise Ratios" (with Matthias Hartmann) has been accepted for publication by Empirical Economics.

My paper "Beyond Fisheries: Common-Pool Resource Problems in Oceanic Resources and Services" (with Wilfried Rickels and Martin Quaas) was published by Global Environmental Change.


Curriculum Vitae


  • 2006-2009: University of Kiel, Doctoral Program in Quantitative Economics (PhD).
  • 2005-2006: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Advanced Studies Program in International Economic Policy Research.
  • 2004-2005: University of Maastricht, Minor Program in European Studies.
  • 2001-2005: University of Maastricht, Master Program in Econometrics.


  • Since 2014: Heidelberg University, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics.
  • 2016: RWTH Aachen University, Visiting Professor of Economics.
  • 2013-2014: Heidelberg University, Postdoc for Macroeconomics.
  • 2009-2013: Kiel Economics Research & Forecasting, Managing Director.
  • 2012: International Monetary Fund, Visiting Researcher at the research department.
  • 2010-2011: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Consultant to the research area "The environment and natural resources".
  • 2010: International Monetary Fund, Consultant to the research department.
  • 2010: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Consultant to IFMR in Tashkent (UZ).
  • 2005-2008: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Researcher.


Research Interests

Interaction of Business Cycles and Financial Markets, Macroeconomic Forecasts and Expectations, Time-Series Econometrics, Sustainability


Selected Publications


Selected Working Papers


Work in Progress

  • Robust Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts (joint with H. Manner)
  • Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts for Energy Loads (joint with H. Manner)
  • Multivariate Evaluation of Macroeconomic Forecasts (joint with H. Manner and M. Wolters)
  • Business Cycles and Systematic Forecast Errors (joint with N. Jannsen)
  • Analyzing the Long-Run Effects of Recessions
  • Inflation Anchoring in the Euro Area (joint with G. Kenny)
  • Uncertainty Shocks (joint with B. Born and Z. Enders)



Introduction to Econometric Methods (Master), Institute for the World Economy, 2006/2007/2008

Introduction to Applied Macroeconometrics (Master), IFMR (Tashkent), 2010

Business-Cycle Theorie (Bachelor), Heidelberg University, 2013/14

Macroeconometric Forecasting (Master), Heidelberg University, 2014

Applied Macroeconometrics (Master), Heidelberg University, 2014/15

Economic Research with Matlab (Seminar, Bachelor), Heidelberg University, 2014/15

Macroeconomic Forecasting (Master), Heidelberg University, 2015

Empirical Macroeconomics (Master), Heidelberg University, 2015/16

Introduction to Macroeconomics (Bachelor), RWTH Aachen University, 2016

Advanced Macroeconomics (Master), RWTH Aachen University, 2016

Monetary Policy during the Financial Crisis (Seminar, Bachelor), Heidelberg University, 2016/17



Applied Economics; Canadian Journal of Economics; Ecological Economics; Economic Journal; Economics Letters; Emerging Markets Finance and Trade; Empirical Economics; Energy Economics; Ensayos sobre Política Ecónomica; European Economic Review; German Economic Review; International Journal of Forecasting; International Review of Economics and Finance; Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik; Journal of Banking and Finance; Journal of Business & Economic Statistics; Journal of Economics & Business; Journal of Financial Stability; Journal of Forecasting; Journal of Macroeconomics; Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking; King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals; Macroeconomic Dynamics; Oesterreichische Nationalbank; Portuguese Economic Journal; Public Finance Review; Review of Economics & Statistics; Scandinavian Journal of Economics; Southern Economic Journal.

Editor: Email
Latest Revision: 2017-03-30
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