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Jun.Prof. Dr. Jonas Dovern

Assistant Professor of MacroeconomicsDovern Portrait

Room: 01.010 (AWI)
Campus Bergheim
Bergheimer Str. 58
D-69115 Heidelberg
Phone: +49-(0)6221 -54-2958
Office hour: Wednesday 11:00-12:00 h (please coordinate per email in advance)



My research with Christopher Zuber on the impact of recessions on estimates of potential output is now available as a working paper.

A summary of my recent publication in the International Journal of Forecasting was published in Wirtschaftsdienst.

This semester I teach a course on empirical methods for macroeconomics for Master students.

My paper "Systematic Errors in Growth Expectations over the Business Cycle" (with Nils Jannsen) was published by the International Journal of Forecasting.

My paper "Does Joint Modelling of the World Economy Pay Off? Evaluating Global Forecasts from a Bayesian GVAR was published by the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.

My paper "Forecast Performance, Disagreement, and Heterogeneous Signal-to-Noise Ratios" (with Matthias Hartmann) was published by Empirical Economics.


Curriculum Vitae


  • 2006-2009: University of Kiel, Doctoral Program in Quantitative Economics (PhD).
  • 2005-2006: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Advanced Studies Program in International Economic Policy Research.
  • 2004-2005: University of Maastricht, Minor Program in European Studies.
  • 2001-2005: University of Maastricht, Master Program in Econometrics.


  • Since 2014: Heidelberg University, Assistant Professor of Macroeconomics.
  • 2016: RWTH Aachen University, Visiting Professor of Economics.
  • 2013-2014: Heidelberg University, Postdoc for Macroeconomics.
  • 2009-2013: Kiel Economics Research & Forecasting, Managing Director.
  • 2012: International Monetary Fund, Visiting Researcher at the research department.
  • 2010-2011: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Consultant to the research area "The environment and natural resources".
  • 2010: International Monetary Fund, Consultant to the research department.
  • 2010: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ), Consultant to IFMR in Tashkent (UZ).
  • 2005-2008: Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Researcher.


Research Interests

Macroeconomic Forecasts and Expectations, Heterogeneity of Expectations, Time-Series Econometrics, Interaction of Business Cycles and Growth, Interaction of Business Cycles and Financial Markets


Selected Publications


Selected Working Papers


Work in Progress

  • Robust Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts (joint with H. Manner)
  • Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts for Energy Loads (joint with H. Manner)
  • Multivariate Evaluation of Macroeconomic Forecasts (joint with H. Manner and M. Wolters)
  • Analyzing the Long-Run Effects of Recessions
  • Inflation Anchoring in the Euro Area (joint with G. Kenny)
  • Uncertainty Shocks (joint with B. Born and Z. Enders)



Introduction to Econometric Methods (Master), Institute for the World Economy, 2006/2007/2008

Introduction to Applied Macroeconometrics (Master), IFMR (Tashkent), 2010

Business-Cycle Theorie (Bachelor), Heidelberg University, 2013/14

Economic Research with Matlab (Seminar, Bachelor), Heidelberg University, 2014/15

Macroeconomic Forecasting (Master), Heidelberg University, 2014 and 2015

Empirical Macroeconomics (Master), Heidelberg University, 2014/15; 2015/16; 2017/18

Introduction to Macroeconomics (Bachelor), RWTH Aachen University, 2016

Advanced Macroeconomics (Master), RWTH Aachen University, 2016

Monetary Policy during the Financial Crisis (Seminar, Bachelor), Heidelberg University, 2016/17

Monetary Theory and Monetary Policy (Bachelor), Heidelberg University 2017



Applied Economics; Canadian Journal of Economics; Ecological Economics; Economic Journal; Economic Modelling; Economic Systems; Economics Letters; Emerging Markets Finance and Trade; Empirical Economics; Energy Economics; Ensayos sobre Política Ecónomica; European Economic Review; German Economic Review; International Journal of Central Banking; International Journal of Forecasting; International Review of Economics and Finance; Jahrbücher für Nationalökonomie und Statistik; Journal of Banking and Finance; Journal of Business & Economic Statistics; Journal of Economics & Business; Journal of Financial Stability; Journal of Forecasting; Journal of Macroeconomics; Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking; King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals; Macroeconomic Dynamics; Oesterreichische Nationalbank; Portuguese Economic Journal; Public Finance Review; Review of Economics & Statistics; Scandinavian Journal of Economics; Southern Economic Journal.

Editor: Email
Latest Revision: 2017-11-20
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